National Public Radio sponsors a bipartisan poll of 1,000 likely voters jointly run by Republican Whit Ayres of Resurgent Republic and Democrat Stan Greenberg of Democracy Corps. This poll covers a dozen states with highly contested Senate races – Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina and West Virginia.
Even with MI and NH added into this collection of otherwise red and purple states, a poll weighting the respondents 346 Dems to 308 Reps seems substantially slanted. However, the poll internals suggest that many Tea Party folks who are unhappy with the progressive GOP establishment, but vote for libertarian/conservative GOP candidates, may now self-identity as independents.
In this poll, the Indis make up 327 or one-third of the total respondents. These are the folks who will decide the 2014 election and they are decidedly GOP:
51% “lean GOP” (Here are many of your Tea Party voters)
Voted for Romney in 2012 by a 26% margin.
Disapprove of Obama by 38%.
Oppose Obamacare by 27%, with over half strongly opposing.
Disapprove of the largely Democrat incumbents by 9%.
Favor the GOP Senate candidate by 16%.
The Republican half of this polling team is being coy when he tells NPR these numbers “don’t yet” represent an anti-Democrat “wave” election. These numbers look very much like 2006 and 2010 when the center of the electorate wanted to fire the party in power in favor of candidates running conservative campaigns. (Yes, the Democrats ran to the right of the GOP Congress in 2006).
Surf’s up again!