Of Colorado Delegates and ISIS

Candidate Donald Trump has been whining for the past couple days about losing a Colorado caucus he clearly did not understand nor did his campaign even attend in any significant numbers:

In response, Colorado Senator Corey Gardner (who had no problem navigating the Colorado caucuses) pithily observes:

 

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Mr. Snowden, Laws Are For The Little People

Fox News’ Chris Wallace interviewed President Barack Obama and asked him about Hillary Clinton’s criminal storage of well over 1,000 emails containing classified information up to eyes only top secret in her hacked private email server and her felony provision of the same to people without clearance. Barry blew off his former Secretary of State’s crimes, explaining that “there’s classified, and there’s classified. There’s stuff that’s really top secret, top secret, and then there’s just stuff being presented to the President or Secretary of State.”

Back in 2013, the Obama administration charged Edward Snowden with multiple felonies for publishing classified materials with lower levels of classification than many of the Clinton emails. Upon watching the Obama interview from his refuge in Russia, Snowden tweeted:

Laws are only for the little people under the Obama regime, Mr. Snowden.

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Changing GOP Nomination Math

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Trump’s only realistic chance of earning the nomination is to enter the convention with a majority of pledged delegates. Otherwise, Cruz has the best chance of earning the nomination. Here is why:

A super majority of voters do not support Trump, so it is increasingly unlikely, even if he rides the plurality of the vote to take the delegates in winner take all states, that the Donald will reach a majority of pledged delegates going into the convention.

Although the misogynistic Trump appears to alienating female voters and Cruz is getting on a roll this week taking a majority of the North Dakota delegates and very likely heavy majorities of Wisconsin and Colorado over the next week, Cruz has an even longer shot of winning a majority of delegates going into the convention. The super majority of voters supporting non-Trump candidates have split their vote between multiple candidates for the entire race and will continue doing so as long as Kasich remains an active candidate.

If no active candidate goes into the convention with a majority of pledged delegates, then the delegates pledged to second tier candidates who have left the race or otherwise released their candidates and the large number of unpledged candidates can give Trump or Cruz a majority on the first ballot. If this does not happen, the majority of the delegates pledged to Trump and Cruz will be released to vote as they wish until a majority of all delegates cast votes for one candidate.

Cruz has a FAR better chance than does Trump of earning the votes of released, unpledged and even pledged Trump delegates after the first ballot. State parties choose the the vast majority of actual delegates with some slots reserved for national party leaders. Team Cruz has been working to earn the support of these delegates for months and many of the state slates are plurality or majority Cruz supporters. Most of the remaining delegates are establishment types, who dislike the Donald more than they do Cruz and increasingly view Cruz as the only viable non-Trump candidate. This means that many of the delegates pledged to vote for Trump on the first ballot will likely move to Cruz on the second ballot.

The Team Trump RINOs appear to be clueless concerning the basic nomination rules of the party of which they are nominally part. At best they have ignored the state parties and their delegates, at worst they are alienating them with bullying and threats or lawsuits. Until very recently, Trump made no effort to actually convince state delegates to support him. As a result, there are no reports of any significant numbers of delegates supporting Trump going to Cleveland.

THIS is why organization is important and presidential politics is not a reality show.

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Setting The Stage For A Contested Republican National Convention

There is a very little reported behind the scenes battle for the actual convention delegates which will decide the Republican nomination if Trump does not win an outright majority of delegates.
Because the Trump campaign is clueless on how the GOP nominating convention actually works, Team Cruz is busy stacking the rules and credentials committees with his delegates.
The credentials committee has the power to decide if delegates are qualified to sit at the convention and could disqualify uncredentialed Trump delegates before the first ballot vote.
The rules committee can effectively exclude Kasich from any of the ballots by maintaining the Romney Rule, requiring a candidate to win at least eight states and allow all delegates pledged to candidates who are no longer on the ballot to vote as they wish.
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If the RNC goes to a second ballot, nearly all the delegates are released to vote as they wish. The vast majority of delegates pledged to support Trump on the first ballot are not Trump supporters. Team Cruz has been working them for weeks and many of them are likely to defect to Cruz. Now that the Republican establishment is increasingly, albeit grudgingly backing Cruz over Trump, the establishment delegates from Blue states are also likely to move to the Texas senator.
Bottom Line: If Trump does not win a majority of the delegates heading into the convention, the Donald could have a very difficult time taking the nomination in a contested convention like the Republicans held in 1976.
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Whatever Works

When Mr. Obama tells you that he is not a socialist, remember this video of Dear Leader telling Argentinian school children he does not believe there is any difference between socialism and capitalism and advocates using “whatever works.”
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Pinning The Pig

Donald Trump has dragged political debate in the GOP down to the level of a pig wrestling contest at a state fair. However, in what may be his strongest debate performance yet, Senator Ted Cruz managed to deftly pin the pig without getting too muddy in the process while speaking about policy.

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The Criminal Investigation of Hillary Clinton Took A Step Forward This Week

Hillary Clinton’s legal jeopardy from her illegal storage and provision of classified information through her private email just jumped significantly. FBI has investigated this case for months, but the involvement of the prosecutors at the Justice Department, if any, has been unclear. Now it appears that Justice is very much involved and just granted criminal immunity to the State Department staffer who installed Clinton’s email server so he can speak freely on the subject to the FBI.

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