The Incredible Shrinking Democrat Party

While the Democrat media creates its own imaginary alternative Blue America that looks an awful lot like their New York city and Washington D.C. home bases, the Democrat Party is in fact melting away across the land.

Rasmussen performs a rolling survey of over 10,000 Americans every month from which it derives all of its various poll results. One of the questions posed by Rasmussen in that polling is asking whether the respondent is registered to vote as a Republican, Democrat or Other. The historical Rasmussen data collated at Datechguy’s Blog shows that a 7.6% Democrat advantage in registration when Obama was elected in 2008 flipped to a small 1.3% GOP advantage during the 2010 election and now a 4.3% GOP advantage last month.

This change in the electorate is primarily driven by a massive shrinkage of the Democrat Party from 41.4% of registered voters in November 2008 down to 33.3% of registered voters in August 2012 – a nearly 20% reduction in the size of the party in less in the space of one presidential administration!

As Datechguy observes:

What does this mean for November? It means a lot.

The Democrats won 2 election in this period 2006 & 2008 with a 6.9 advantage in 2006 & a 7.6 advantage in 2008.

There is no example of the Democrats winning since 2004 with an advantage less that 6.9.

The GOP won two elections in this period 2004 with a -1.6 disadvantage & 2010 with a 1.3 advantage. This means the GOP has proven it can win with not only a small lead but with an actual disadvantage. Additionally with an advantage of only 1.3 they pulled off the biggest house swing in my lifetime.

Even if you believe that Rasmussen has a house bias toward the GOP, that bias would be constant and would not effect the relationship between the Rasmussen polling results and the actual election results, and that relationship suggests that 2012 will be a better election for the GOP than the once in a century 2010 wave election.

The Democrat media polling showing a small Obama lead over Romney with less than 50% support of likely voters is generated entirely by weighting their results with a massive Democrat advantage over Republicans that has not existed since 2008, as Doug Ross shows on this instructive chart:

As I have noted repeatedly, Mitt Romney enjoys a comfortable lead outside the margin of error in every poll once it is normalized to a tie in partisan election participation as in 2004 and 2010. If the Rasmussen registration data showing a 4.3% GOP advantage in registration is correct, my findings are actually biased toward the Democrats and we could be looking at a continuation of the 2010 electoral wave sweeping out the Democrat Party from power outside of their megalopolis enclaves.

About Bart DePalma

Bart DePalma is a solo country attorney practicing in the mountain town of Woodland Park, CO. Bart publishes the Citizen Pamphleteer blog and his new book Never Allow A Crisis To Go To Waste: Barack Obama and the Evolution of American Socialism was released December 2011.
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