At National Review Online’s The Corner blog, Josh Jordan examined the internals of the major polls and uncovered two important findings:
First, on average, the polls are finding that Independent voters are breaking for Romney by 8.3% over Obama, which is a mirror image of their voting for Obama over McCain by 8% in 2008 – a total turnaround of over 16% and the most Independents who have favored a GOP candidate since 1984.
So why don’t these polls show Romney with a lead similar to Reagan in 1984?
Jordan’s second finding is that, on average, these polls are including 4.5% more Democrats than Republicans – a larger margin than any recent election except 2008 and far more than the partisan ties in 2004 and 2010. This Democrat bias is infecting all the polls, even including Rasmussen which has 4% more Democrats than Republicans.
If you remove this bias and instead assume an even partisan split like in 2004 and 2010, the average Romney lead goes from 0.2% to 4.5%, with the polls relatively consistent between Romney +2% to +7%, which is inside the standard +/- 3% margin of error.
Today’s polling gives new meaning to the old Richard Nixon slogan – the Silent Majority.